Thursday, July 14, 2011

Are there any signs of improved economic conditions?

Jared Bernstein (see here) points us to a paper from the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University (download paper here) that might contain some hopeful signs of economic improvement.  The report contains the following very interesting graph (see below, click to enlarge).


Mr. Bernstein says about the graph:

Profits typically lead jobs and wages in a recovery, but this seems a lot more serious than a matter of leads and lags.  With so much slack in the job market, workers have zippo bargaining power and for at least the last thirty years in this economy, when such conditions prevailed, growth did an end run around the middle class.

So, there may be some good news - and, well, some not-so-good news.  The dramatic increase in corporate profits that we have seen of late may indicate the economy is poised to began growing again.  But as Mr. Bernstein says, we will still be faced with the issue of flat wage growth for workers.

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