Output gap - Federal Reserve of Atlanta

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (see here) has some interesting data on the "output gap" (see below).

About the data, they say:

In this month's BIE survey we went fishing in the same murky waters, but this time we took a more direct approach. We asked our panel to provide a percentage estimate of how far their sales levels are above/below "normal." Here's what we found: On a gross domestic product (GDP)–weighted basis, the panel estimates that current sales are about 7.5 percent below normal. That's more slack than the conventional estimates, like the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) measure of the GDP gap, which puts the economy about 6 percent under its potential.

Student debt - again

The Pew Research Center (see here) has the following graph on the growth of student loan debt.  And, yes, it is in adjusted dollars.

The Great Recession update

As I have said before, the folks over at Calculated Risk do a great job informing us with graphs.  They have updated one of their graphs (see below - click to enlarge -  and see here for more).

They comment as follows:

When the Great Recession is compared ... to the Big 5 financial crises and the U.S. Great Depression ... the current cycle actually compares pretty favorably. This is likely due to the coordinated global response to the immediate crises in late 2008 and early 2009. While the initial path of both the global and U.S. economies in 2008 and 2009 effectively matched the early years of the Great Depression – or worse – the strong policy response employed by nearly all major economies – both monetary and fiscal – helped stop the economic free fall.

The challenge of surveys

The Public Religion Research Institute (see here) is out with a new survey on the "complexities of white the working class" in the U.S.  One of their charts (see below) has some interesting findings.

The research shows that" Southern white-working class Americans stand out from white working-class Americans in the Northeast, Midwest, and West on a number of cultural attitudes and attributes."  The research reminds us again of the challenges of interpreting surveys when using categories or labels without precise definitions.

Political parties and the credibility challenge

I have been unable to muster much passion for political elections for quite some time.  This is probably more of a personal issue than anything else, but presently we have a very contested Presidential election that ostensibly appears to be about the "size" of government and the trajectory of government spending.  So, the American citizen is suppose to choose between two parties that assure us they are up to the task.  Well the graph below (you can find the source here) indicates it just isn't so.

I can do no better than Nick Gillespie's (The Fiscal Times) comments on the graph:

Two things stand out: George W. Bush was god-awful. And Barack Obama looks to be even worse (note: fiscal 2009 includes spending attributable to both adminstrations).

A third observation: The Republicans seem to be the ones who ratchet up spending while the Dems solidify that amount. Which party will grow into being the crew that brings spending down to something that is affordable?

I'm not hopeful that either party is up to the task!

Income and the Middle Class

I've read several posts and comments recently about how both President Obama and Governor Romney are talking about the "middle class"  (see this post over at Economix by Catherine Rampell).  I suppose there isn't a widely accepted standard definition in use here, but I find it bothersome when both candidates refer to "people with incomes less than or equal to $250,000 as "middle class."  Using data from the Tax Policy Center (see here), I generated the graph below:

Note that $250,000 of income is about the 96th percentile (clearly not anywhere near the "middle").  Thus I do not know in what sense this is meaningfully viewed as middle class.

Nice graphic on quantitative easing

The Wall Street Journal (see here) has a nice graphic that illustrates how Quantitative Easing works (see graph below, click to enlarge).

Who pays the top income tax rate?

David Cay Johnston answers the question for us (see here).

Data on teachers' salaries

Catherine Rampell over at the New York Times blog (see here) has some very interesting data on teachers' pay.  She asks:  Does it pay to become a teacher?  Well....