Data on new business establishments

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has some very interesting data on the number and size of new business establishments (see here).  The graph below pretty much tells the story (click to enlarge).  The data show that "Not only has the number of new establishments declined, but the average size of new establishments has also tended to decline over time."

John Robertson (research department at the Atlanta Fed) says:

If small businesses, or more specifically new small businesses, are an engine of job growth in the United States, that particular engine has been getting less powerful. Between March 2009 and March 2010, new establishments generated 1 million fewer jobs than over the period from 2005 to 2007.

Wages, the recession, and college grads

The Economic Policy Institute (see here) has a graph (see below, click to enlarge) that "tracks the average inflation-adjusted hourly wage for young college graduates with no advanced degree from 1979 to 2010."

Not good news as students head back to college.

Will our elected officials get to work on jobs???

Jared Bernstein (see here) has the graph of the day (click to enlarge).  The data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Length of Unemployment since 1967.

Want free checking? Stay away from big banks.

Felix Salmon has a piece today (see here) about the extent to which big banks have forgone free checking accounts (see graph below, click to enlarge).

He says:

But America’s biggest banks, behaving in a pretty cartel-like manner, have nearly all abolished it in unison. Two years ago, 96% of them had free checking; now, only 35% do.

New data on Case-Shiller

The June 2011 data for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out (see below).  See here.

What is academic freedom?

Perhaps only academics are interested in an answer to this question (and my experience in the academy leads me to believe, sadly, that a number of them aren't interested either).  In a time when most citizens (and again, many academics) are ignorant of the purpose of tenure, Daniel Little has a very interesting post that deserves to be read (see here).  Let me provide an extended quote from his piece.

So what is academic freedom? And how is it distinct from the other kinds of freedoms we have as either constitutional protections or fundamental human rights -- freedom of association, freedom of speech and thought, freedom of expression? Fundamentally the idea is that the faculty of a university have a more extensive and specialized version of each of these fundamental freedoms, and that their exercise of their academic freedom cannot be used as a basis for dismissing them from their positions within the university. (This is the fundamental justification of the system of faculty tenure.) The employees of a corporation have a right of freedom of expression; but their conditions of employment may set limits on their exercise of that freedom. For example, there are numerous examples of people dismissed from their jobs in the private sector as a result of their comments about the company they work for. The idea of academic freedom is that professors have a special right to think, reason, and express their ideas about subjects relevant to their teaching and research responsibilities without fear of sanction by the universities (or legislatures) that employ them. 

Again, in an age when the "mantra" is that universities should be run like corporations (another instance of people proclaiming what they do not understand), we all could do much worse than attempting to understand just what we have inherited regarding the practice of the profession of teaching.

Data on insurance premiums by state

The Kaiser Family Foundation (see here) has a new report on the cost of health insurance premiums in the individual market by state (see graph below, click to enlarge).  Thanks to the blog Prescriptions (see here) for calling our attention to this.  Note the data is "Average Monthly Premium Revenues Per Member Per Month."

The report states that:

Nationwide, the average monthly premium per person in the individual market in 2010 was
$215, but the state-by-state range was substantial. Vermont and Massachusetts both had
average per member per month premiums over $400 per month. The average premium
revenues in Rhode Island, New York, and New Jersey were also relatively high, ranging from about $344 to $364 per month. Alabama ($136), California1 ($157), Arkansas ($163), Idaho ($167), and Delaware ($169) had the lowest average monthly premiums in the country. 

The continuing saga of deficits

Catherine Rampell over at the blog Economix (New York Times, see here) points us to a Congressional Budget Office report (see here) that contains the following graph (click to enlarge) showing various policy impacts on the U.S. defiict:

Ms. Rampell states:

The lightest blue bars, labeled “Extend Tax Policies,” represent an estimate of how the deficit will grow if Congress extends the Bush tax cuts and indexes the alternative minimum tax for inflation, as legislators are expected to do once again. As you can see, these moves alone more than double the size of the deficit for most of the years shown.

Hurricanes in the Northeast

The blog FiveThirtyEight (over at the New York Times, see here) provides us some data on hurricanes and their economic costs in the Northeast.

ACT scores and Mississippi

Well, ACT data for the Class of 2011 has been released (see here), and with some trepidation, let's take a look at how Mississippi compares.  According to the report:

• 52% of Mississippi students are ready for College English Composition courses (vs 66% Nationally)
• 20% of Mississippi students are ready for College Algebra courses (vs 45% Nationally)
• 33% of Mississippi students are ready for College Social Science courses (vs. 52% Nationally)
• 13% of Mississippi students are ready for College Biology courses (vs 30% Nationally)
• 10% of Mississippi students meet all 4 ACT benchmarks (vs 25% Nationally)

It is argued that such a comparison is inappropriate because Mississippi requires all students to take the ACT and many other states do not.  In fact, Mississippi is one of only eight states reporting 100% of all graduates taking the ACT.  Indeed, of the top ten states with the highest Average Composite Score, only Minnesota reported testing over 50% of graduates.  So let's look at the group of eight states that reported testing 100% of graduates together (see below).

The Mississippi scores are still lower, but not by the margins implied by the national comparison.

A look at health insurance coverage in Mississippi

The data below is from statehealthfacts.org (see here).

As of 2008 - 2009, Mississippi had an estimated 510,300 people that were uninsured.

"Recovery" needs wider participation

Jared Bernstein (see here) reminds us that the recovery (as weak as it is) is still very narrow (see graph below, click to enlarge).

Bernstein says:

As you can see, corporate profits have not only recovered their post-recession highs, they’ve surpassed it.  And compensation as a share of the economy is far lower.  You can also compare how different these patterns look compared to last recession in 2001, when the income shifts were not nearly so sharp.

New home inventory

Calculated Risk (see here) gives us a look at new home inventories (click on graph to enlarge).

According to Calculated Risk:

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 61,000 units in July. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.

Looks like it has become "drill, baby, drill"

The blog Real Time Economics (over at the Wall Street Journal, see here) has this graph on the number of oil rigs drilling in the U.S.:

Is raising the eligibiliity age for Medicare a good idea?

There is lots of talk about "How to fix Medicare?" and one of the options being discussed is simply to increase the age at which one may qualify.  The following graph (from The Incidental Economist, see here) should give some pause to pursuing this option.

Aaron Carroll at The Incidental Economist says:

The life expectancy at age 65 for those in the bottom half of earners has not risen at nearly the rate of the top half of earners. So raising the retirement age will impact the total benefits given to lower income people more than higher income people.

Miles driven data

Calculated Risk (see here) charts the Department of Transportation data on US miles driven (see graph below, click to enlarge).

What Texas miracle?

Some data to consider in the midst of all this talk about a "Texas miracle" (see here).  Click on the graph below to enlarge.

Mortgage delinquencies by state

Calculated Risk (see here) has an interesting graph of mortgage delinquencies by state (see below, click to enlarge).  The graph shows:

The following graph shows the range of percent seriously delinquent and in-foreclosure for each state (dashed blue line). The red diamond indicates the current serious delinquency rate (this includes 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process).

David Wessel reminds us...

Over at the Wall Street Journal (Real Time Economics, see here) David Wessel reminds us of just how significant the unemployment rate currently is.  He says:

There are 13.9 million unemployed people in the U.S. – and that just counts those looking for work.  That works out to 9.1% of the labor force, the widely publicized unemployed rate.

But here are a few more ways to look at it.

There are more unemployed people in the U.S. than there are people in the state of Illinois, the fifth largest state.

In fact there, there are more unemployed people in the U.S. than there are people in 46 of the 50 states, all but Florida, New York, Texas and California.

Anger at Washington..... with hands out!

In the midst of all this anger toward the Federal Government (and there are many reasons to be angry), I wondered what data there might be to set along side this anger.  The latest data I could find is for 2005 for "federal spending per tax dollar by state" and it is very interesting.  See the table below (click to enlarge).

So, New Mexico and Mississippi received the largest amount of Federal money per tax dollar, but there are many other states in "good company," as they say.  The Metropolitan Transportation Commission used this data to create an illustrative graph (see below, click to enlarge).

Of course, the fact that you receive much more in Federal spending than you pay in taxes is no reason not to be critical of the federal government.  It does, however, make one wonder if much "anger" is offered without recognition of the extent to which states and communities are often great benefactors (I have blogged on this before) of the same organizations and programs they claim to so despise.  It reminds me of those people screaming about "government takeover of healthcare" while themselves being covered by Medicare.

The Great Recession's impact on GDP

The Economist (see here) has some good data on the impact of the Great Recession on GDP.  The graph below (click to enlarge) provides a good summary.

The Economist states that:

GDP growth rates slowed sharply in most rich economies in the second quarter. So where does that leave output relative to its level before the start of the financial crisis? If we rank the G7 countries according to the change in real GDP since the end of 2007, Canada tops the league. But Canada, like the United States, has a fast-growing population, whereas the number of Germans and Japanese has started to shrink. GDP per person is therefore a better measure of relative performance. As the chart below shows, by this gauge Canada is still 1% below its pre-crisis level and America is 3.5% down.

Unemployment remains the real issue!

The Economic Policy Institute (see here) has posted this graph (see below, click to enlarge).

The authors state that:

During the last two downturns, the highest the unemployment rate reached was 7.8% before declining again. The Great Recession has been far worse for the job market. In fact, we have now been a full percentage point over that level for more than two years: the unemployment rate has been at or above 8.8% for the past 28 months.

I keep waiting for this issue to become THE issue (as opposed to things like the national debt, global warming studies, whether the Federal Reserve Chairman is flirting with "treason," the gold standard, ....).

Student loan defaults

Phil Izzo over at the Wall Street Journal (Real Time Economics blog, see here) looks at student loans (and worries a little - see graph below, click to enlarge).

Mr. Izzo says,

In the second quarter, 11.2% of student loans were more than 90 days past due and the rate was steadily rising, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Education and the recession

Justin Lahart over at the Wall Street Journal (see here) has a graph showing how the recession has impacted the influence of education on employment (see graph below, click to enlarge).

A paragraph that needs to be read and considered

Christina Romer (economist at UC Berkeley) has a very good essay in the Sunday New York Times (see here).  She skillfully reviews some economic history and concludes her piece with the following paragraph:

Equally important, someone needs to explain to the nation and to world markets just why we must increase the debt in the short run. Unemployment of roughly 9 percent for 28 months and counting is a national emergency. We must fight it with the same passion and commitment we have brought to military emergencies in our past.

In my opinion, she is exactly correct.  Of course, based on the results of the Iowa straw poll, her advice isn't likely to be acted upon anytime soon.

Data that stopped me in my tracks...

Jenny Anderson has a piece over at the New York Times (see here) today about legacy admissions in colleges.  It contains the following paragraph:

Mr. Kahlenberg, citing research from his book “Affirmative Action for the Rich: Legacy Preferences in College Admissions” made the case that getting into good schools matters — 12 institutions making up less than 1 percent of the U.S. population produced 42 percent of government leaders and 54 percent of corporate leaders.

Wow!  I can't believe this is a good thing for American democracy.

Health and income inequality

Yves Smith has an essay in Salon (see here) about health and income inequality.  In the essay, the work of Kate Pickett is mentioned, specifically a presentation she gave at the INET conference in 2010.  The graph below (click to enlarge) is from her presentation (full presentation here):

In general, the graph shows that health and social problems are worse in states where the income inequality is higher (although there is considerable variation).  I've written about income inequality in the past.  What interest me is the polarization this topic brings when it is mentioned (like everything else these days, I guess).  The argument for not addressing the issue of income inequality appears to be that somehow that would make us "socialists" or that we would further contaminate the "true" spirit of capitalism.  We simply must get beyond these ideological gauntlets.

What work is

I have a strong interest (as my blog shows) in the issue of employment.  My heart goes out to people who look day after day for work in an economy like we have now.  So I found myself moved this evening as I listened to NPR's Marketplace and heard Philip Levine read his poem "What work is" (he has just been named the new U. S. poet laureate - see LA Times article here).  So forgive me for departing from my focus on "hard data" and let me share "What work is" with you.  Thank you, Mr. Levine.

We stand in the rain in a long line
waiting at Ford Highland Park. For work.
You know what work is--if you're
old enough to read this you know what
work is, although you may not do it.
Forget you. This is about waiting,
shifting from one foot to another.
Feeling the light rain falling like mist
into your hair, blurring your vision
until you think you see your own brother
ahead of you, maybe ten places.
You rub your glasses with your fingers,
and of course it's someone else's brother,
narrower across the shoulders than
yours but with the same sad slouch, the grin
that does not hide the stubbornness,
the sad refusal to give in to
rain, to the hours wasted waiting,
to the knowledge that somewhere ahead
a man is waiting who will say, "No,
we're not hiring today," for any
reason he wants. You love your brother,
now suddenly you can hardly stand
the love flooding you for your brother,
who's not beside you or behind or
ahead because he's home trying to
sleep off a miserable night shift
at Cadillac so he can get up
before noon to study his German.
Works eight hours a night so he can sing
Wagner, the opera you hate most,
the worst music ever invented.
How long has it been since you told him
you loved him, held his wide shoulders,
opened your eyes wide and said those words,
and maybe kissed his cheek? You've never
done something so simple, so obvious,
not because you're too young or too dumb,
not because you're jealous or even mean
or incapable of crying in
the presence of another man, no,
just because you don't know what work is.

A graph that tells the story

Jared Bernstein (see here) has a graph (click to enlarge) this morning that pretty much summarizes the unemployment situation.

An "agenda" in everything?

Throughout most of the current political debate about the national debt, I regularly found myself wondering why it has become so difficult to get opposing sides to accept (or even consider) good data.  That is, the agenda in play trumps everything and everybody is forced to defer to the agenda (or opt out of the debate).  Now, this isn't a new phenomenon, but it seems to me to have become pervasive in the last few years.

So I read with interest (and, unfortunately, no surprise) this column (see here) in the New York Times about the Florida law that prevents doctors from asking patients if they have a gun in the home.  The essay is written by a physician and he states that:

At the moment, however, those of us working in a clinic or hospital will have to imagine we live in a place where gun injuries aren’t a public health issue and forget some of the questions we learned to ask in medical school. In doctors’ offices in Florida, prevention has its limits.

Now, why would someone object to a physician asking about the presence of guns in a house with kids?  Well, proponents of the law argued that it was a violation of their rights and none of the physician's business.  And why would physicians asks such questions?  The same reason they ask about the presence of swimming pools and the use of seat belts.  They know what the data shows (see below, click to enlarge).

So, in the interest of prevention and safety and being aware of the data, physicians ask questions that are OK as long as they don't conflict with some agenda (that currently has political power).  Could we be living in an age of smart phones and stupid people?

Interesting data on teen employment

Over at the blog Political Calculations (see here) there is a very interesting graph on the July employment data with special emphasis on the issue for teens (click to enlarge).

The bloggers state that:

As a frame of reference, just 4,244,000 teens were counted as being employed in July 2011, as compared to 5,911,000 in November 2007 - the month before the peak in the previous cycle of economic expansion, which marks the beginning of the most recent recession.