Well, as the Republicans gather in Tampa for their convention, I can't help myself. Much is being made of the "economic ideas" they are offering and the contrast of those ideas with the recent past. Indeed, Mr. Ryan claims to draw upon the work of some "brilliant thinkers" like Frederick Hayek in order to provide some intellectual "weight" for his proposals (think Medicare). Well, while you listen to the stirring speeches, keep the following quote in front of you:
Nor is there any reason why the state should not assist the individuals
in providing for those common hazards of life against which, because of
their uncertainty, few individuals can make adequate provision. Where,
as in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid
such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are as a
rule weakened by the provision of assistance – where, in short, we deal
with genuinely insurable risks – the case for the state’s helping to
organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is very strong.
And who is the author of this quote? It is from Frederick Hayek's The Road to Serfdom. It makes you wonder if they read these books or just use them to decorate their offices or serve as props for TV interviews.
"God can have opinions; everyone else should bring some data." often attributed to W. Edwards Deming, but most likely should be attributed to R. A. Fisher or George Box
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
More data from Pew
Jordan Weissmann over at The Atlantic (see here) points us to one of the more interesting graphs in the Pew report on the middle class (see graph below, click to enlarge).
Weissmann says:
Here's the arc it captures: In the immediate postwar period, America's rapid growth favored the middle and lower classes. The poorest fifth of all households, in fact, fared best. Then, in the 1970s, amid two oil crises and awful inflation, things ground to a halt. The country backed off the postwar, center-left consensus -- captured by Richard Nixon's comment that "we're all Keynesians now" -- and tried Reaganism instead. We cut taxes. Technology and competition from abroad started whittling away at blue collar jobs and pay. The stock market took off. And so when growth returned, it favored the investment class -- the top 20 percent, and especially the top 5 percent (and, though it's not on this chart, the top 1 percent more than anybody).
Weissmann says:
Here's the arc it captures: In the immediate postwar period, America's rapid growth favored the middle and lower classes. The poorest fifth of all households, in fact, fared best. Then, in the 1970s, amid two oil crises and awful inflation, things ground to a halt. The country backed off the postwar, center-left consensus -- captured by Richard Nixon's comment that "we're all Keynesians now" -- and tried Reaganism instead. We cut taxes. Technology and competition from abroad started whittling away at blue collar jobs and pay. The stock market took off. And so when growth returned, it favored the investment class -- the top 20 percent, and especially the top 5 percent (and, though it's not on this chart, the top 1 percent more than anybody).
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Pew Research Center data on Middle Class
The Pew Research Center (see here) has released a new report on the status of the middle class. The report is entitled "The Loss Decade of the Middle Class," so you get the thrust of their findings. Below is a graph from the report (click to enlarge).
From the report:
"Fully 85% of self-described middle-class adults say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for middle-class people to maintain their standard of living. Of those who feel this way, 62% say “a lot” of the blame lies with Congress, while 54% say the same about banks and financial institutions, 47% about large corporations, 44% about the Bush administration, 39% about foreign competition and 34% about the Obama administration. Just 8% blame the middle class itself a lot."
From the report:
"Fully 85% of self-described middle-class adults say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for middle-class people to maintain their standard of living. Of those who feel this way, 62% say “a lot” of the blame lies with Congress, while 54% say the same about banks and financial institutions, 47% about large corporations, 44% about the Bush administration, 39% about foreign competition and 34% about the Obama administration. Just 8% blame the middle class itself a lot."
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Remembering Karl Fleming
Karl Fleming died this past weekend at the age of 84. His book "Son of the Rough South" has continued to have a significant influence on me. As a Southerner I continue to struggle with the history of my region. Mr. Fleming, in my view, took truth seriously - truth about the South and about himself. The L.A. Times said,
"Karl Fleming risked his life
covering James Meredith's entry into the University of Mississippi and the
deaths of three civil rights workers in 1964. He was badly beaten after the
Watts riots in 1965."
I will always be thankful for his contributions.
Monday, August 13, 2012
New research that is troubling
In a new book by Martin Gilens, Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Power in America, the author reveals some findings that are quite troubling. On the blog The Monkey Cage (see here) he summarizes some of his findings (see graph below, click to enlarge).
On the blog he states:
"These findings suggest that political representation functions reasonably well for the affluent. But the middle-class and the poor are essentially unrepresented (unless they happen to share the preferences of the well-off)."
On the blog he states:
"These findings suggest that political representation functions reasonably well for the affluent. But the middle-class and the poor are essentially unrepresented (unless they happen to share the preferences of the well-off)."
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Update on student loan debt
The Wall Street Journal (see here) has an update on the issue of growing student debt (see graph below, click to enlarge).
The authors state:
"According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of recently released Federal Reserve data, households with annual incomes of $94,535 to $205,335 saw the biggest jump in the percentage with student-loan debt from 2007 to 2010, the latest figures available. That group also saw a sharp climb in the amount of debt owed on average."
"The figures put this segment at the heart of a larger trend striking across income groups. More than three million households now owe at least $50,000 in student loans, up from about 794,000 in 2001 and fewer than 300,000 in 1989, after adjusting for inflation."
The authors state:
"According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of recently released Federal Reserve data, households with annual incomes of $94,535 to $205,335 saw the biggest jump in the percentage with student-loan debt from 2007 to 2010, the latest figures available. That group also saw a sharp climb in the amount of debt owed on average."
"The figures put this segment at the heart of a larger trend striking across income groups. More than three million households now owe at least $50,000 in student loans, up from about 794,000 in 2001 and fewer than 300,000 in 1989, after adjusting for inflation."
Interesting data on income in the U.S. by sex
Over at the blog Political Calculations (see here) there is a very interesting post on "average real income in the U.S. by sex." The graph below (click to enlarge) summarizes matters.
Here is an excerpt from the commentary:
"It's also interesting to note that since 1947, the annual average income earned by all individual women has nearly tripled, while the income for men has increased by a factor of 2.1. Meanwhile, the average income earned by all Americans has gone up by slightly less, doing just better than doubling in value during the time from 1947 to 2010."
Here is an excerpt from the commentary:
"It's also interesting to note that since 1947, the annual average income earned by all individual women has nearly tripled, while the income for men has increased by a factor of 2.1. Meanwhile, the average income earned by all Americans has gone up by slightly less, doing just better than doubling in value during the time from 1947 to 2010."
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